From hair colors to Fed metrics, here are 50 recession indicators

Thanks to the ongoing trade war and resulting economic uncertainty, Americans are looking for recession signs — and finding them pretty much everywhere.

From newfangled hair colors to wonky Federal Reserve measures, here are 50 recession indicators to monitor if you’re worried about a forthcoming downturn.

The old reliables

1. A decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

A recession is most often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, so any dips in this metric are a sign that rough times are coming.

2. An inverted yield curve

The dreaded inverted yield curve occurs when the interest rates on short-term Treasury bonds are higher than interest rates on long-term Treasury bonds — which, incidentally, happened this year in late February.

3. Waning consumer confidence

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic shoppers feel about current and future economic conditions. A dip, like the one we've experienced over the last four months, usually correlates to a clampdown on spending and could signal a forthcoming economic slowdown.

4. Depressed small business optimism

Same idea, different survey group. The U.S. Small Business Optimism Index, measured by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), declined by 3.3 points in March.

5. A decrease in retail spending

Waning consumer confidence suggests shoppers will tighten their wallets, and a quantitative decrease in retail sales means they're actually doing it. So far this year, data around retail spending has been middling at best.

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6. A rise in unemployment claims

A consistent rise in unemployment claims and the overall unemployment rate is a traditional precursor to an economic slowdown, given a loss of income generally correlates to lessened spending.

The unemployment rate ticked up in March, but for now, the labor market appears resilient. (I'm saying "appears" because the March unemployment data preceded the trade war escalation.)

7. Reductions in total nonfarm payroll

The yin to unemployment claims' yang, nonfarm payroll, is published each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It measures the number of U.S. workers minus farmers and a few other job classifications.

Because these workers have an outsized influence on GDP, gradual or dramatic reductions are widely considered a sign of an unhealthy economy.

8. Bad manufacturing worker data

In the same vein, a decrease in the average weekly hours, overtime, and overall employment in the manufacturing industry suggests a slowdown in labor demand — and these were hallmarks of the Great Recession.

9. Constrained industrial production (IP)

Industrial production refers to the real outputs of the manufacturing, mining, and utility industries. It’s measured by the Fed each month and monitored by the Conference Board, as a sustained decline in IP is considered a leading indicator of a recession.

10. Drops in Real Personal Income (RPI)

RPI is earnings for services (wages and salaries), adjusted for inflation, and is largely considered a measure of someone's purchasing power; thus, decreased RPI often equates to an economic slowdown.

11. Climbing credit card delinquencies

Credit card payments that are 30 days past due, alongside an increase in customers paying only their minimums, are generally considered an indication that consumers are facing money challenges and will have to decelerate spending.

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12. Tightening credit markets

As delinquencies and defaults increase, financial institutions tend to implement more stringent underwriting practices. Signs of tightening credit markets include increased loan rejection rates, a lack of balance transfer offers, and decreased credit card marketing.

13. Cooling housing markets

The Great Recession was defined largely by the associated housing crash and the slashed home prices, lower mortgage rates, and buyer’s market that followed in its wake.

But the 2025 housing market is unique — and could deviate from its predecessors. Learn more about this year's housing market predictions.

14. Construction slowdowns

A slowdown in construction is often associated with a cooling housing market, which, as we just covered, can signal a recession.

15. A bear market

A bear market is a sustained stock market downturn that traditionally occurs when a leading market index, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, falls by 20% or more from its recent peak.

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16. Slower inflation

Call it part of the "every cloud has a silver lining" phenomenon, but inflation tends to slow in times of economic instability due to decreased demand and slow consumer spending.

Unfortunately, there are fears of stagflation — high inflation coupled with slow economic growth — in our present conditions.

Vibe-y, but (kind of, sort of) accepted

17. The Hemline Index

Though hard to trace back to its original source, this now widely shared economic theory suggests that hemlines shorten during boom times and lengthen during lean times. It's heavily tied to the fact that women wore short flapper dresses in the 1920s, just before the Great Depression.

18. The Lipstick Index

Coined by Leonard Lauder after his company, Estee Lauder, experienced increased lipstick sales during the 2000 recession, the Lipstick Index suggests that people will buy small luxuries, like — you guessed it! — lipstick, during economic downturns to improve their mood.

19. The Nail Polish Index

A variant of the Lipstick Index, the Nail Polish Index, emerged after the Great Recession after several data sets indicated nail polish sales increased more dramatically than lipstick sales between 2007 and 2010.

20. The Men’s Underwear Index

Purportedly favored by economist and former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, this theory speculates that men stop replacing their underwear when times are lean. It is tied to U.S. men's underwear sales falling during and rebounding after the Great Recession.

21. The Diaper Rash Indicator

An increase in diaper rash — quantified by rising rash cream sales — suggests cash-strapped parents are trying to save money by purchasing fewer disposable diapers, according to this theory floated back in 2011.

22. The Garbage Indicator

This theory, pushed by economist Michael McDonough, suggests that less trash is a sign of a forthcoming GDP decline. The idea is that people throw more stuff out when making room for new purchases.

23. Pricey gold

Investors tend to flock to gold as an alternative when traditional investors are unstable, so inflated gold prices — pegged to increased demand — have become a bit of a bad economic omen.

>>MORE: Should you ever buy meme coins?

24. The R-Count Index

This informal index, created by The Economist, measures how often The Washington Post and The New York Times use the word "recession" in a given quarter — and correlates an uptick to a forthcoming slowdown.

25. Crowded dating sites

The theory is that people looking to meet that special someone can no longer afford a bunch of pricey nights on the town, so they turn to dating apps instead. It's supported by data showing a strong performance by the online dating industry during the Great Recession.

26. Foreclosure upticks

Though foreclosures can spike in non-official downturns, an increase in past-due mortgage payments, short sales, and repossessions often correlate to prolonged economic hardship. In fact, all of those data points were closely monitored in the late aughts for signs of recovery following the 2007 housing crisis.

27. Increased bankruptcy filings

An extension of defaulting on your credit cards or mortgage payments, bankruptcy is often a last resort for people who can’t pay off their debts — and personal and business filings tend to rise during recessions.

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Early warning signs

28. Wall Street predictions

Many financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, monitor for and predict the likelihood of a recession in a 12-month period. Rising odds can predate lower GDP.

29. Downward retail estimates

Similarly, revised quarterly earning estimates from big-name retailers can precede a quantitative drop in retail spending.

30. Layoff announcements

A wave of layoff news or a sudden surge in job loss announcements on LinkedIn can portend a bad jobs report, which can portend a recession.

31. Going-out-of-business sales

Tied to small business optimism, going-out-of-business signs or sales are anecdotal evidence that trouble is brewing.

Wonky metrics

32. The Sahm Rule

Also known by its formal name (the Real-Time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator), this Federal Reserve measure says we're at the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more over the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

33. SOS recession indicator

A brand new metric out of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the SOS (Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style) recession indicator signals a recession when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate increases by more than 0.2 percentage points over its minimum for the 52 preceding weeks.

34. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

Also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX measures expected stock market volatility for the next 30 days based on the performance of index options within the S&P 500 Index (SPX). A high VIX is widely considered an indication that trouble is ahead.

35. The Leading Economic Index (LEI)

The LEI index is just as it sounds: a composite of 10 economic indicators, including some of the aforementioned data points, such as the yield curve, consumer sentiment, and unemployment applications. The Conference Board monitors it to foretell changes to the U.S. economy.

A falling LEI signals a slowdown is brewing — which, unfortunately, has been happening over the last few months.

36. The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (TPU)

Developed by a trio of Federal Reserve workers, this index measures how often seven mainstream media newspapers cover trade policy uncertainty each month and tests how it correlates to economic activity.

37. Real estate investor sentiment

Multiple indices measure how investors feel about the commercial real estate market over a given timeframe to generate findings on leading housing market recession indicators, such as construction, home prices, and occupancy rates.

Highly speculative

38. Recession hair

A media-coined term for skipping salon visits back in 2009, the recession hair trend suggests longer, grayer, and un-styled hairdos are a sign of tough times.

39. Recession blonde (or brunette)

The 2025 variant of recession hair involves a particular color "on the razor's edge of brown and blonde" that allows the wearer to go longer between dye jobs.

40. Bland fashion

Recession indicators aren't limited to hair salons. Past recessions were dominated by certain fashion trends, like neutral tones, "corporate style," and minimalist wardrobes.

41. Frozen pizza sales

Considered a sign that people are dining in instead of going or taking out, frozen pizza sales spiked during the Great and COVID Recessions — and appear to be on the rise again in 2025.

42. Cheap booze

From declining champagne sales to knockoff beer to mini-bottles of hard liquor, any switch from bougie to cheap booze has become tied to economic downturns.

43. Lack of snacks

Decreased sales of cookies, chips, and other packaged foods are considered a sign of broad cuts to discretionary spending. These days, it doesn't help that these products have become much pricier than usual.

44. ‘Buy now, pay later’ concert tickets

'Buy now, pay later' services are generally having a moment right now, but the recession indicator label got thrown around once news broke that people were using them to subsidize this year's trip to Coachella.

45. Home gardens

The idea here is that cash-strapped customers will save on store-bought fruits and vegetables by growing their own.

Probably imagined

46. Home cafes

Same idea, different little treat, though consistently linking cutbacks in our coffee habits to recessions is one reason social media is also worried about Dunkin' Donuts' closures.

47. Lady Gaga’s new album

Or, more broadly, “recession pop,” which refers to the carefree, upbeat, hedonistic, or, perhaps more pointedly, escapist songs that dominated the radio waves during the late aughts.

48. Flash mobs

Blame the fact that flash mobs were last prevalent in 2008 (the in-between year of the Great Recession) for this new social media theory.

49. Leslie Odom Jr. reprising his role in Hamilton

This viral “recession indicator” appears tied to the waves of nostalgia that tend to accompany recessions.

50. Recession memes

Lady Gaga albums, flash mobs, Broadway role reprisals, and other social-media-endorsed recession indicators (like slow Cowboy Carter tour sales) may feel like their stretch, but their existence en masse ultimately suggests a collective vibe shift — and possible troubles ahead.

If you're fearing a recession or even an unrelated job loss, here are 50 steps to get through a rough financial time.

_{This article is for educational purposes only. We don’t recommend or advise individuals to buy, not buy, sell, or not sell particular investments or other assets, as everyone’s circumstances are different. Also, it’s your money and ultimately up to you to decide the best use for it.}